A slight Too Quiet on the Western Front

Western Reserve Area On Aging - A slight Too Quiet on the Western Front.
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It's awfully quiet in world markets right now...a slight too quiet. The aggregate of world banks taking a break with any new stimulus and that we are in that regular lull duration in between earnings releases is keeping stocks from surging higher. On the unavoidable side, the same two issues will keep stocks from plunging as well.

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As I have noted, the whole of the increase in liquidity in global systems has become staggering, with Helicopter Ben Bernanke's Us. Federal Reserve's .9 trillion, the Ecb's (European Central Bank) .6 trillion and the Boe's (Bank of England) .1 Trillion. Add in the Boj (Bank of Japan) and other Eurozone members, we cross trillion that was not in the system pre 2008. This is equal to over one-third of total world equity values. It is this gigantic infusion of liquidity from world banks which has kept this shop afloat and what will keep it from plummeting... For now.

This gigantic coordinated injection of capital is the world's banks attempting to combat what will take years to overcome: the demographic overhang of 92 million baby boomers past their peak spending years, the gigantic over-indebtedness of the American consumer deleveraging at light speed and the powder keg in Europe set to explode again.

In addition to the huge printing of free money, aka liquidity, there has also been a consistent pattern of stocks going down as we lead into earnings season a few weeks away. This is due from enterprise warnings and lower of earnings expectations. That's where we are now. However, this tends to reverse as earnings come in above expectations. Of policy this can't last forever, and look for a peak in the next few quarters... And you won't want to be in stocks at that point, that's' for sure.

The aging bull shop is finally starting to show its age. We are over 3 years into this bull market, which is old by any standard. The fact that it has been liquidity induced and not consumer driven tells us that we are clearly in a bubble, so when it ends, it's going to be ugly...really ugly, like 2001 and 2008 bubble ending ugly.

The superior early warning signs are just emerging. Small caps, which have been prominent the way for many months, are starting to diverge and not do as well as larger cap stocks. This is base at the end of bull runs as bigger capitalization stocks are commonly the last stocks to turn down at the end of a bull market. Typically, once this deterioration begins, it tends to spread from small-caps straight through the mid-caps and finally to the weaker big-caps, as profit-taking panic ensues and maintain fades.

A confirmation of this new perilous trend in the shop would be confirmed by new highs in the Dow and S&P 500 but not in the smaller indexes. This stage typically lasts 3 - 6 months, which would coincide well with the normal strong fourth year and weak first year of a presidential cycle. Of policy it will come very quickly, without warning and there will only be a very few places to hide and prosper, so get ready in expand and stand ready with your personal exit strategy. When this bubble bursts, it's going to be déjà vu all over again.

Investor Strategy
Nimble traders can take benefit of this rally, but the key is to be "Tactical" and avoid buy-and-hold (buy-and-hope) at all costs. Moderate and low risk investors, most of us midpoint people who would rather not have to work until the day we die, or lose sleep at night because of shop volatility, should continue to have a managed briefcase in the market's "sweet spot" which is currently earnings investments such as corporate bonds, preferreds and Mlp's, many compliancy 8-10%. If the shop does continue to rise, you'll likely get the best of both worlds of appreciation along with a wholesome dividend, but with less risk.

For those that want a guarantee of principle with a decent yield or a guaranteed earnings for life, they do exist, if you know where to look, many with upside potential based on the shop but with no risk of loss. If your briefcase can live with this option, take benefit of it. Why lose sleep the next time the shop crashes.

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